Overall Positive Results, with Stronger Rents and Faster Pace Seen in Sales Markets
Douglas Elliman Real Estate, the largest brokerage in the New York Metropolitan area and the second largest independent residential real estate brokerage in the United States by sales volume, today releases the Q4 2019 sales market reports for Brooklyn, Queens and Riverdale, Westchester, Putnam and Dutchess counties and the December 2019 rental market reports for Manhattan, Brooklyn and Queens.
In New York City, both Brooklyn and Queens saw an uptick in sales in the fourth quarter after two years of declining sales. The median sales price dropped in Brooklyn for the second time in three quarters, but Queens saw record high prices on top of the increase in sales for the quarter. Prices are also on the rise in Riverdale where the number of sales declined as a result of two consecutive quarters of decreased inventory.
“It’s quite encouraging to see the sales numbers finally heading upwards in Brooklyn and Queens this quarter,” said Steven James, President and CEO of Douglas Elliman, New York City. “After two years of declines, it looks like the market adjustment we’ve been waiting on is starting to come to fruition. Queens and especially Brooklyn are moving very fast; faster, in fact, than in Manhattan.”
The NYC rental market remained strong this month, showing rental price growth and declining concessions in both Manhattan and Brooklyn.In Manhattan, super luxury rents, representing the top 5% of the market, continued to show the highest median rent gains. “Stronger rents in the upper ends of the markets can be seen as a reaction to the slower sales we’ve been seeing in the upper endsales market,” said Jonathan Miller, of Miller Samuel Inc., the author of the reports.
“This has been a good year for the rental market, so it’s not surprising to see a strong finish to 2019,” said Hal Gavzie, Executive Manager of Leasing for Douglas Elliman Real Estate. “Manhattan and Brooklyn showed consistency, while Queens proved again to be somewhat of an outlier as prices were down and concessions were up in opposition to the other boroughs after previously aligning more closely. It’s worth noting that the number of new leases fell across all three markets, indicating that landlords are excelling at tenant retention.”
Similarly to NYC, Westchester results also showed a marked improvement over previous quarters. Price trend indicators all rose year-over-year, and the number of sales in the county also increased. Dutchess County produced similar results, with prices up and sales surging. Putnam County experienced a bit of reset as the median sales price decreased for the first time in eleven quarters after reaching a record high in Q3, and the number of sales dropped after two straight quarters of increases.
“We’re seeing good things happening across the region, especially in Westchester and Dutchess Counties,” said Scott Elwell, Elliman’s Regional Vice President of Sales for Westchester and New England. “The single-family market saw the most sales growth this quarter due to lower mortgage rates and more realistic pricing from sellers, resulting in more transactions.”
Report results from around the New York Metro area showed a strong end to the year, as well as the decade, after the region’s markets underwent uncertainty as a result of the changes enacted by the federal SALT tax.
“After a substantial period of adjustment following the implementation of the SALT tax, buyers have finally started to re-enter the sales market in a significant way,” said Jonathan Miller, of Miller Samuel Inc., the author of the reports. “Strong sales results from the city’s outer boroughs as well as from Westchester are a long time coming. We’ll have to watch and see if these trends carry into the new year and how the rental market might be affected.”
BROOKLYN SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“Sales moved higher after nearly two years of declines.”
- Median sales price slipped year over year for the second time in three quarters
- The market hot spot that showed the largest year over year increase in sales was the $2M to $3M price range
- Approximately 1 in 5 sales sold above last asking price
- Overall listing inventory declined after seven straight quarters of year over year growth
- Luxury listing inventory jumped as the price trend indicators declined
- New development listing inventory rose sharply for the fifth straight quarter
Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year-ago period)
- Median sales price rose by 1.9% to $800,000
- Average sales price decreased by 2.5% to $972,873
- Number of sales rose by 2.9% to 2,545
- Listing inventory slipped by 1.7% to 2,943
- Days on market was 78 days, unchanged
- Listing discount was 4.6%, up from 3.4%
- Luxury median sales price decreased by 4.1% to $2,330,000
QUEENS SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“While setting new price records isn’t new, sales rose annually for the first time in more than two years.”
- Sales rose year over year for the first time in nine quarters
- Median sales price and average sales price continued to set records
- Approximately 1 in 6 sales sold above last asking price
- Listing inventory has expanded year over year for nearly three years
- Condo, co-op and 1-3 family median sales price and average sales price set records
- Condo and 1-3 family sales rose year over year for the first time in seven quarters
- All condo new development price trend indicators set new records
Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year ago-period)
- Median sales price rose by 7.4% to $610,000 [record]
- Average sales price increased by 5.9% to $674,844 [record]
- Number of sales rose by 6.8% to 3,468
- Listing inventory increased by 5.7% to 5,456
- Days on market was 76 days, down from 78
- Listing discount was 1.6%, down from 4.7%
- Luxury median sales price rose 2.3% to $1,330,000
RIVERDALE SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
[includes Fieldston, Hudson Hill, North Riverdale and Spuyten Duyvil]
Overview
“All price trend indicators rose above year-ago levels as sales continued to slide.”
- Median sales price increased year over year for the sixth time in seven quarters
- Listing inventory fell year over year for the second consecutive quarter
- Number of sales decreased year over year for the fifth straight quarter
Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year-ago period)
- Median sales price rose by 5.9% to $339,000
- Average sales price dropped by 0.3% to $442,169
- Number of sales fell 4.8% to 118
- Listing inventory declined 3.8% to 150
- Days on market was 104 days, up from 90 days
- Listing discount was 1.8%, down from 3.9%
- Luxury median sales price declined 12.7% to $982,500
MANHATTAN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“All price trend indicators rose as the market share of landlord concessions declined but remained elevated.”
- The twelfth year over year quarterly increase in net effective rent
- The vacancy rate has edged higher year over year since July
- The ninth straight quarter with an annual decline in concession market share
- Median net effective rate increased across all bedroom types but large gains with larger sized apartments
- Concession market share remained high and consistent among apartment size categories
- Year over year median rent growth was higher in non-doorman than doorman buildings
- Super luxury rent representing the top 5% of the market, continued to show the highest median rent gain
Key Trend Metrics (from same period last year)
(Face Rent)
- Median rental price rose by 6% to $3,499
- Rental price per square foot rose by 3.5% to $70.35
- Average rental price increased by 6.4% to $4,412
(Net Effective Rent – includes concessions)
- Median rental price rose 5.9% to $3,387
- Share of new rental transactions with OP or rent concessions was 40.3%, down from 44%
- Size of concession was 1.4 months of free rent or equivalent, up from 1.2
- Manhattan vacancy rate was 1.81% up from 1.78%
- Number of new leases fell 13% to 2,820
- Listing inventory rose 1.8% to 5,043
- Days on market was 31, down from 32
- Listing discount was 2.5%, down from 2.8%
BROOKLYN RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“Significant annual increases across all price trend indicators.”
- Most year over rise in median face rent in nearly six years
- Year over year gains in median face rental price across all apartment sizes
- Twelfth straight year over year decline in landlord concessions
- Third straight annual decline in new leases as landlords were more successful retaining tenants at renewal
Key Trend Metrics (from same period last year)
(Face Rent)
- Median rental price was $2,991 up 9.2%
- Rental price per square foot rose by 6.9% to $47.99
- Average rental price rose by 6.9% to $3,410
(Net Effective Rent – includes concessions)
- Median rental price rose by 10.1% to $2,894
- Share of new rental transactions with OP or rent concessions was 36%, down from 49.2%
- Size of concession was 1.5 months of free rent or equivalent, up from 1.4
- Number of new leases fell 11.4% to 811
- Listing inventory fell 26.6% to 1,446
- Days on market was 28, down from 31
- Listing discount was 1.6%, down from 2.1%
QUEENS RENTAL MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
[Northwest Region]
“In a reversal from last month, median rent gains were more significant in the entry-markets.”
- Net effective median rent slipped year over year for the first time in four months
- First year over year increase in landlord concession market share in five months
- The fifth straight decline in new leases as landlords were more successful retaining tenants at renewal
Key Trend Metrics (from same period last year)
(Face Rent)
- Median rental price rose by 0.8% to $2,795
- Rental price per square foot declined by 1.3% to $49.32
- Average rental price increased by 3.8% to $3,022
(Net Effective Rent – includes concessions)
- Median rental price slipped by 1.6% to $2,636
- Share of new rental transactions with OP or rent concessions was 54.2%, up from 52.8%
- Size of concession was 1.8 months, down from 1.1 months
- Number of new leases fell by 24.2% to 201
- Listing inventory declined by 11% to 390
- Days on market was 26, down from 27
- Listing discount was 1.4%, down from 1.8%
- New development market share was 33.3%, down from 38.9%
WESTCHESTER SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“Single-family median sales price pressed higher as the luxury single-family market remained stable.”
- The number of sales increased annually in two of the last three quarters
- All three price trend indicators rose year over year for the second straight quarter
- Single-family listing inventory declined annually for the second straight quarter
- Single-family median sales price hasn’t seen an annual decline in three consecutive quarters
- The hot spot for the most improved year over year sales activity was from $800K to $899K
- Luxury median sales price was unchanged from the year-ago level
- Luxury listing inventory fell year over year for the third straight quarter
Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year-ago period)
- Median sales price rose 6.4% to $500,000
- Average sales price increased 4.8% to $616,053
- Number of sales edged up 0.1% to 2,350
- Listing inventory decreased 5.9% to 2,811
- Days on market was 79 days, unchanged
- Listing discount was 4.1%, up from 3.8%
- Months of supply was 3.6, down from 3.8
By Property Type
Single-Family Market- Median sales price increased by 2.5% to $615,000
- Number of sales rose by 4.2% to 1,403
Condo Market - Median sales price slid 2.6% to $374,000
- Number of sales increased by 0.3% to 311
Co-op Market
- Median sales increased by 2.4% to $169,999
- Number of sales declined by 10.6% 465
Multifamily (2-4) Market
- Median sales price rose by 18% to $590,000
- Number of sales slipped by 0.6% to 171
Luxury Market (upper 10% of all 1 family sales)- Median sales price was unchanged at $1,800,000
- The luxury price threshold fell by 4.1% to $1,300,000
PUTNAM SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“Median sales price reset from the record set in the prior quarter.”
- Median sales price declined year over year for the first time in eleven quarters
- Listing inventory increased year over year for the fourth straight quarter but remains low
- The number of sales slipped annually after two straight increases
Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year-ago period)
- Median sales price decreased by 6.7% to $335,000
- Number of sales fell slipped by 0.6% to 307
- Listing inventory increased by 10.3% to 512
- Days on market was 74 days, down 14%
- Listing discount was 2.2%, down from 2.4%
DUTCHESS SALES MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
Overview
“Sales have risen sharply year over year for four straight quarters.”
- Listing inventory is nearly double the decade average for the fourth quarter
- Median sales price did not see a decline in ten of the past eleven quarters
- The year over year rise in sales surged for the fourth straight quarter
Key Trend Metrics (compared to same year-ago period)- Median sales price rose by 3.4% to $300,000
- Number of sales surged by 16.7% to 419
- Listing inventory slipped by 1.8% to 604
- Days on market was 85 days, up 6.3%
- Listing discount was 3.2%, down from 3.5%
About Douglas Elliman Real Estate
Established in 1911, Douglas Elliman Real Estate is the largest brokerage in the New York Metropolitan area and the second largest independent residential real estate brokerage in the United States by sales volume. With more than 7,000 agents, the company operates approximately 120 offices in New York City, Long Island, The Hamptons, Westchester, Connecticut, New Jersey, Florida, California, Colorado, Massachusetts and Texas. Moreover, Douglas Elliman has a strategic global alliance with London-based Knight Frank Residential for business in the worldwide luxury markets spanning 60 countries and six continents. The company also controls a portfolio of real estate services including Douglas Elliman Development Marketing, Douglas Elliman Property Management and Douglas Elliman Commercial. For more information on Douglas Elliman as well as expert commentary on emerging trends in the real estate industry, please visit elliman.com.
