REBNY: NYC Real Estate Broker Confidence on Upwing
New York City residential and commercial real estate brokers’ confidence levels hit their second highest ratings in December 2012 of the last seven months, according to the inaugural release of the Real Estate Board of New York’s (REBNY’s) Broker Confidence Index.
The Broker Confidence Index – tabulated on a scale of zero to ten, with five being neutral – was 8.12 in December 2012, second only to September 2012 when the confidence index reached 8.55. Brokers were more confident in the market in December compared to November 2012, when in the aftermath of hurricane Sandy, broker confidence dipped to 7.55.
REBNY’s Broker Confidence Index is the result of survey data from REBNY’s residential and commercial brokerage division members. The survey has been conducted monthly since June 2012. The overall Broker Confidence Index gauges broker perceptions of the current market as well as the market six months from now. In addition to the overall index, REBNY also surveys confidence in the residential and commercial markets individually.
“Since we began conducting the survey seven months ago, we have found that our Brokerage Division Members, both residential and commercial, have been increasingly confident in the market overall,” said Steven Spinola, REBNY President. “In this our first public distribution of the index, the survey results show that while Hurricane Sandy caused a dip in confidence in November 2012, broker confidence is again on the upswing and we anticipate that confidence levels will continue to increase as the economy improves overall and the city continues to recover from the impacts of the storm.”
Overall broker confidence increased more than half a percent point from November 2012 to December 2012. When brokers were asked about their expectations of the market six months from now, even more significant increases were seen in the commercial market.
The Residential Real Estate Market Overall Confidence Index was 8.57 for December 2012, rising from the 8.33 confidence index shown in November 2012. This increase in the Residential Overall Confidence Index can be attributed to the resilient and steady sales market as a whole despite fluctuating market conditions in certain areas, particularly those impacted by the storm.
The Commercial Real Estate Market Overall Confidence Index for December 2012 saw an even greater month to month increase than the Residential Real Estate Market Overall Confidence Index. The index was 7.67 in December 2012 as compared to 6.77 in November 2012. Respondents’ confidence about the future was even better, registering over a one-point-increase in December 2012 compared to November 2012 with indexes of 7.85 and 6.74 respectively.
“Our broker confidence index offers a perspective on the market that is not currently available,” added Michael Slattery, REBNY’s senior vice president for research. “Our membership represents a broad cross section of the residential and commercial brokerage industry. The survey respondents are the professionals who are on the ground and know the market best. It is their perceptions of the market that can give us the first glimpse of positive and negative changes coming our way. The broker confidence index aims to capture that perspective as a way to benefit those working in the industry.”
Survey data has been collected monthly from residential and commercial brokerage division members via anonymous online surveys administered by REBNY. In order to ensure consistent data patterns, REBNY began collecting monthly data in June 2012, without making survey results public until this month.
The REBNY Broker Confidence Index will be distributed monthly. The next release is scheduled for early February 2013.