The Trump administration is currently debating several changes to U.S. immigration policy. Cushman & Wakefield released a study on how those shifts could impact commercial real estate and corporate occupancy, specifically.
Known as the RAISE Act, the proposed legislation would impose:
- A reduction in total legal immigration over the coming decade.
- A change in how immigrants are prioritized and granted access to the U.S.
- A hard limit on the number of refugees allowed to enter the country each year (50,000).
“Certain industries such as ours are likely to be disproportionately impacted by these proposed changes,” noted Cushman & Wakefield’s Revathi Greenwood, Americas Head of Research. “Legal, foreign-born workers fill 31 percent of buildings/grounds maintenance jobs and a quarter of construction positions. Limiting their access into the U.S would exacerbate the shortage of workers these sectors already face.”
Further, since 2000 the number of foreign-born workers employed in the U.S. has increased by 42 percent, with management/professional occupations representing the fastest-growing category over that time (+75 percent). An estimated 3.5 million foreign-born residents work in the management and business field – a main driver of office demand.
Gateway Cities and Beyond
Just under half of all U.S. population growth in 2017 will be due to immigration.
“Historically, immigrants have been drawn to gateway cities in the U.S. in addition to a handful of other large coastal cities. Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia are the five cities with the largest immigrant populations,” said Cushman & Wakefield Economist Rebecca Rockey, Head of Forecasting, Americas. “Not only do immigrants make up nearly one-third of the populations in these markets, but for some of them, immigration has driven population growth there in the two decades from 1995-2015.”
However, immigrants are beginning to move away from the country’s gateway markets. In 2006, 41 percent of people obtaining permanent resident status resided in one of the six gateway markets. However, in 2015 the percentage dropped to 36 percent. During that same decade, the number ofpeople obtaining permanent resident status in seven other cities clustered on the West Coast, in Texas and in the Midwest increased by over 3 percent.
Commercial Real Estate Correlation
Cushman & Wakefield’s study drew a positive correlation between markets with large immigrant populations and real estate fundamentals. “The five non-gateway markets with the most new immigrants between 1995-2015 –Miami, Houston, Dallas, Atlanta, and Silicon Valley– saw dramatic increases in employment and office inventory over the same period,” explained David C. Smith,http://www.cushmanwakefield.
About Cushman & Wakefield
Cushman & Wakefield is a leading global real estate services firm that helps clients transform the way people work, shop, and live. Our 45,000 employees in more than 70 countries help occupiers and investors optimize the value of their real estate by combining our global perspective and deep local knowledge with an impressive platform of real estate solutions. Cushman & Wakefield is among the largest commercial real estate services firms with revenue of $6 billion across core services of agency leasing, asset services, capital markets, facility services (C&W Services), global occupier services, investment & asset management (DTZ Investors), project & development services, tenant representation, and valuation & advisory. 2017 marks the 100-year anniversary of the Cushman & Wakefield brand. 100 years of taking our clients’ ideas and putting them into action. To learn more, visit www.cushwakecentennial.